China  Aluminum got a big boost recently from closures of illegal aluminum capacity in Xinjiang and Shandong, as well as weaker dollar, positive Chinese economic data and gains in other metals. Given release of legal new capacity and poor demand in the off-season, SMM sees the most active SHFE aluminum moving in a wide range of 13,800-14,800 yuan/tonne in July and August.

In Q4, eyes will be on production control during winter heating season. If 30% of aluminum capacity, which SMM sees a good chance to include illegal capacity required to close, and alumina and prebaked anode capacity are slashed as required in “2+26” cities during winter heating season, aluminum prices will see another round of gains in Q4.The “2+26” cities refer to key regions for environmental protection, namely Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 smaller cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and nearby areas.