Up to Oct.16th, Henan Province, Binzhou and Zibo city of Shandong Province have introduced the time of production limit and the number of limited production line.  The central government asks for annual 10.34 million tonnes production limit. Concerning the operative conditions, the actual annual capacity to be limited is 8.2 million tonnes. 

What need to be focused is whether Shanxi Province will follow Henan Province to introduce a provincial production limit rather than limits in “2+26” cities. The alumina output of Shanxi is the second largest in China, following Shandong, so the green policies in Shanxi will greatly affect alumina price. 

Currently the non- “2+26” city Jinzhong in Shanxi Province released a 30% production limit of alumina on heavily polluted days during heating season. As per SMM knowledge, Shanxi province is very likely to do a provincial green policy, which has not been proved by absolute evidence.

Basically speaking, despite existence of a forced market caused by reduction of alumina profits, which may influence rise of its price, the short supply and continuity of procurement will become the main factors to support the price rise of alumina. SMM predicts the targeted price of alumina is about to hike again.